NBA DRAFT 2022 RANKINGS AND MOCK
Every year for the last several I have done what my friend Joe Burgess has dubbed Bob’s Big Board. On account my name is technically Robert, and I create a big board of who I think will be best in the NBA. Here’s some of my previous big boards to show how wrong I am and occasionally right. I will add the VORP ranking in their draft class next to them. What that means is basically what all their box scores show they added of value over a replacement player. It’s a way of showing a players impact. At least so far in their career. It’s not the best stat to decide who has been better but it’s good enough. So the closer we get to the present the less meaningful the stat is. But that’s okay. I’ll also put their average of points + rebounds + assists in how many minutes they play a game after that.
Here’s my ranking followed by where they actually ended up in their class statistically.
2016
Ben Simmons 1st & 31.7 in 33 minutes
Brandon Ingram 10th & 27.5 in 32 minutes
Kris Dunn, 34th & 15.6 in 24 minutes
Marquese Chriss 46th & 13.3 in 18 minutes
Jamal Murray 9th & 23.7 in 30 minutes
Wade Baldwin 47th & 5.7 in 10 minutes
Jaylen Brown 8th & 23.4 in 28 minutes
Timothe Luwawu-Caborrot 55th & 8.8 in 16 minutes
Denzel Valentine 20th & 12.1 in 18 minutes
DeAndre Bembry 43rd & 10.9 in 19 minutes
guys i missed on - Domantas Sabonis 2nd, Pascal Siakam 3rd, Malcolm Brogdon 4th, Dejounte Murray 5th, Buddy Hield 6th, Jakob Poeltl 7th,
2017
De’Aaron Fox 7th & 28.8 in 32 minutes
Markelle Fultz 25th & 18.9 in 24 minutes
Malik Monk 20th & 14.6 in 20 minutes
Lonzo Ball 6th & 23.8 in 32 minutes
Jayson Tatum 1st & 30.5 in 33 minutes
OG Anunoby 9th & 15.9 in 26 minutes
Donovan Mitchell 2nd & 32.6 in 33 minutes
Semi Ojeleye 49th & 6 in 14 minutes
Josh Hart 12th & 17.7 in 27 minutes
Thomas Bryant 14th & 17.2 in 20 minutes
Guys I missed on - Bam Adebayo 3rd, Jarrett Allen 4th, John Collins 5th, Derrick White 8th, Monte Morris 10th
2018
Luka Doncic 1st & 42.9 in 33 minutes
Deandre Ayton 7th & 28.4 in 30 minutes
Wendell Carter Jr 16th & 23.1 in 27 minutes
Collin Sexton 51st & 26.3 in 32 minutes
Miles Bridges 8th & 21.3 in 29 minutes
Jalen Brunson 9th & 18.6 in 24 minutes
Devonte Graham 13th & 20.3 in 28 minutes
Jaren Jackson Jr 12th & 22.1 in 27 minutes
Mo Bamba 14th & 14.7 in 18 minutes
Mikal Bridges 3rd & 17.3 in 31 minutes
guys I missed on - Trae Young 2nd, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander 4th, Robert Williams 5th, Mitchell Robinson 6th, Michael Porter Jr 10th
2019
Zion Williamson 3rd & 35.9 in 31 minutes
Ja Morant 1st & 32.7 in 32 minutes
Cam Reddish 53rd & 15 in 24 minutes
Coby White 47th & 20.8 in 28 minutes
PJ Washington 9th 19.8 in 29 minutes
Chuma Okeke 13th & 14.8 in 25 minutes
Brandon Clarke 2nd & 17.9 in 21 minutes
Terance Mann 11th 13.3 in 20 minutes
Matisse Thybulle 5th & 7.8 in 21 minutes
Rui Hachimura 50th & 19.7 in 28 minutes
Guys I missed on - Cam Johnson 4th, Daniel Gafford 6th, Jaxson Hayes 7th, Tyler Herro 8th, Keldon Johnson 10th
2020 (grain of salt since it’s so new)
Anthony Edwards 4th & 28.4 in 33 minutes
James Wiseman 48th & 17 in 21 minutes
Tyrese Maxey 6th & 18.9 in 26 minutes
Cole Anthony 21st & 25 in 30 minutes
Killian Hayes 56th 14.3 in 25 minutes
LaMelo Ball 1st 31.7 in 30 minutes
Saddiq Bey 5th & 21.5 in 30 minutes
Jaden McDaniels 52nd & 13.1 in 24 minutes
Kira Lewis Jr 44th & 9.8 in 16 minutes
Obi Toppin 8th & 10.5 in 14 minutes
guys I missed on - Tyrese Haliburton 2nd, Desmond Bane 3rd, Immanuel Quickley 7th, Payton Prichard 9th, Xavier Tillman 10th
2021 (take this one with an even bigger grain of salt)
Jalen Suggs 53rd & 19.8 in 27 minutes
Cade Cunningham 9th & 28.5 in 32 minutes
Davion Mitchell 52nd & 17.9 in 27 minutes
Evan Mobley 2nd & 25.8 in 33 minutes
Keon Johnson 49th & 11.5 in 18 minutes
Usman Garuba 15th & 6.2 in 10 minutes
Jaden Springer 16th & 2 in 3 minutes
Jalen Green 45th (see this stat is not always good) & 23.3 in 32 minutes
Kai Jones 26th & 1.7 in 3 minutes
Moses Moody 24th 6.3 in 11 minutes
guys I missed on - Scottie Barnes 1st, Herb Jones 3rd, Franz Wagner 4th, Bones Hyland 5th, Josh Giddey 6th, Alperen Sengun 7th, Quentin Grimes 8th, Trey Murphy 10th
26 of my 60 picks were actually in the top 10. 18 of them were 31 or worse. So I picked some guys in my top 10 who don’t even add first round value. So I’m less than 50% and sometimes miss big.
I asked some of my friends who they missed big on and here’s who they said.
“I thought Harry Giles would head and shoulders better than Jayson Tatum. They were best friends when they were in AAU and I picked Giles.” - Paul Coash.
“Denzel Valentine is a guy I thought would be great. Semi Ojeleye is also someone I believed in but it didn’t work out.” - Nick Griffith. Me too, Nick.
“Chris Duhon, because at the time I didn’t think anything of him being 6’1 and wanted him to be great so bad. Lance Thomas I liked a lot but he didn’t work out.” - Ben Cunningham
“I really thought Kenyon Martin would be an all time great player. He was good but not an MVP level player like I thought. Tyler Hansborough & Kendall Marshall too. Even Ed Cota I thought would be good. I’m sure you can see a trend with my UNC dudes.” - Dane Johns
NOW that you’ve seen how I’m not great at this let’s see who I have damned this year. Next to their names I will have a potential meter. This means on a scale from 1-5 how high I think their potential is from where they are now. 5 being best player on a team, to 1 being I think they are who they are.
First Tier (guys who I think will be in ROY convo in 10 months)
Jabari Smith 6’10 F Auburn, 5
I went back and forth between him and Chet and I decided on Jabari because i think his potential is higher. He had moments that looked like Kevin Durant, and others where he was just Rashard Lewis. I think his floor is a rotational big who can shoot. He also is a solid defender who will be a two way player if he puts the effort in. He was the only reason that Auburn team won so many games. He is tied for my 2nd highest rated offensive player and 8th best defensive.
Chet Holmgren 7’ C Gonzaga, 4
He lands here because he is so skinny but he is the Evan Mobley of this years draft to me. He may disappear at times but he will make a positive impact everywhere he is. He didn’t shoot a ton but has a good shot. I don’t think he will ever be the best player on his team if they are to compete in the playoffs but he will always be important to their success. He is my 3rd highest offensive player and 5th on defense.
Paolo Banchero 6’10 F Duke, 5
I think this is the best offensive player in the draft. He reminds me of Big Melo. I don’t think he will reach those incredible heights, but that is his ceiling to me. His defense is why he’s third and not first. I have a tendency to overrate defense and versatility over pure scoring. Paolo has best in the draft potential but also a chance to just be a rotational scoring big. If he tries on defense he will be right there with Jabari. Like I said he is my 1st offensive player, and 36th defensive.
2nd tier (guys who I would be excited to have on my team, mostly feel good about)
4. Jeremy Sochan 6’9 F Baylor, 4
Here’s the best defense in the draft. He also has a great backstory if you want to look it up. He plays like a euro guy, but with American defense. The reason he is number 1 on that side is because he’s an amazing help defender and also can guard every position. His offense needs a lot of work, but if he lands in a place he won’t be asked to do too much early I think he will develop a shot and more skill. He is my 30th offensive player and my number 1 defensive player.
5. Jalen Duren 6’10 C Memphis, 3
Another guy I might be overrating because of his defense. Reminded me of Bam Adebayo with more above the rim athleticism. I doubt he can make that big of an impact as fast as Bam did, but I love his effort and right now he is just a lob threat and quick dunker. So if he develops a jumper he will be scary. Taller Montrezl Harrell potential too. He’s my 31st offensive player and my 2nd defensive player.
6. Tari Eason 6’8 F LSU, 4
He’s defensive and energy first, but I saw a lot of dribble and drive work from him that made me think he could become a real number 2 guy on a team if he works on his shot. He’s got a high floor I think. Even if he doesn’t work out I think you’ve got a Taurean Prince type here at worst. He’s my 22nd offensive player and my 3rd defensive.
7. Mark Williams 7’ C Duke, 3
Now I also overrate big guys too, so be prepared for this one to bite me, but what I saw from him was sensational. He has a 7’7 wingspan and blocks or rebounds everything. He gave me real Robert Williams comparisons. Will catch every lob and play hard and take over on defense if things hit right. He’s my 32nd offensive player and my 4th defensive player. Sensing a theme here on my tier 2 guys?
8. Keegan Murray 6’8 F Iowa, 3
The most solid player in the draft. Nothing to jump out of your seat about but he has the least likely chance to disappoint also. He already feels like a Pacer or a Blazer (if they don’t trade the pick). I would be happy to have him but he isn’t exciting. Can do just about everything on offense but nothing top level, and a good defender. Closest thing to a guarantee you can get. He’s my 11th offensive player and my 13th defensive player.
9. Bennedict Mathurin 6’6 G/F Arizona, 3
A true knockdown shooter who seems like a more team friendly Buddy Hield to me. He won’t be Devin Booker, but look for him to impact teams similarly. He’s smart, solid on defense, and can take over a game when he gets hot. He’s my 5th offensive player and 26th defensive player.
10. EJ Liddell 6’7 F Ohio St, 3
This one surprised me. I didn’t expect him to be this high. But the more I watched the more I saw a small ball 5 who can run an offense and rim protect. I think he’s perfect for the modern NBA. Would not rate him this high 10 years ago, but the NBA has changed. I won’t be shocked if he is played center and knocking down 3’s for a playoff team in 5 years. He can shoot, and do either part of the PnR, and on defense he is very good with multiple positions. He’s my 25th offensive player and 7th defensive player.
11. Jaden Ivey 6’4 G Purdue, 5
Here’s my biggest drop from consensus to what I think. He is everyone’s 4th best player from what I’ve seen and I totally get why. But his inconsistent shot and defensive effort trouble me. If he can become a legit 3 point shooter and play some average defense, I think we have best player in the draft potential so I’m fine with taking him high. I just don’t believe it yet. But his ceiling is HIGH. His athleticism and speed is the best in the draft. I have him as my 6th offensive player and 33rd defensive player.
12. Jalen Williams 6’6 G Santa Clara, 4
Here’s someone not many know because he played at a small school. He has awesome passing and scoring potential. He could easily be a tall point guard who can knockdown a shot. His defense is good and is easier for him since he has very long arms. I really like this guy and if he played at a power 5 school he would be a top 5 pick I bet. He’s my 14th offensive player and my 22nd defensive player.
13. Johnny Davis 6’4 G Wisconsin, 3
He’s in that Keegan Murray group of guaranteed solid. His floor is a rotational guard who can light people up in 18 minutes and play some good defense. His offense is limited though since I don’t think he has the speed to get by people and plays an old fashioned kind of game that isn’t helped by his size. But he’s smart and took over games in college so he’s not afraid of big moments. He’s my 20th offensive player and 14th defensively.
14. Dyson Daniels 6’6 G G League, 4
This guy is a passing extraordinaire and gives so much defensive effort so of course I love him. He’s like Josh Giddey with way better defense and a worse shot. I could see him being in talks for top 5 ROY if things break right for him. He’s my 21st offensive player and my 12th defensive.
TIER 3 (guys who I like but have some questions about)
15. Blake Wesley 6’5 G Notre Dame, 4
This guy has sky high potential. He’s got smooth moves and can do anything on offense. The only thing holding him back there is consistency and strength. He almost seems to lack a little confidence and I think if he lands in the right spot could be very good. His defense is what saves him for me. Really high ceiling on that end too. He’s a developer and may not play a lot right away but give me a flier on him. He’s my 24th offensive player and my 16th defensively.
16. Ochai Agbaji 6’5 G Kansas, 3
He is a coaches kind of player now. He cuts, passes and shoots well. He just can’t create for himself. His defense is good and his experience should help him in the NBA. I expect him to be in the top 7-8 on a playoff team in the future. He’s my 23rd offensive player and 15th defensive.
17. MarJon Beauchamp 6’7 F/G G League, 4
A really fun player who brings the defense every time. He can guard about anyone and plays with a lot of intensity without going too far. I think he will fit right in with ready made playoff contenders and if he goes to a lesser team it will take time since I don’t think he’s a self creator. But the potential for a lot on offense is here. He’s my 37th offensive player and my 9th defensive.
18. Trevor Keels 6’4 G Duke, 3
Not a surprise if you know what I like. Big, stocky, strong 2 guard who plays hard (but limited) defense and loves to drive at the rim. He’s like a more point guard Lu Dort with less defense. He’s someone I’ll always be cheering for most likely. He’s my 12th offensive player and 28th defensive player.
19. Christian Braun 6’7 F Kansas, 3
Easy comparison to make but he reminded me of Luke Kennard but with more defense. Great shooter who will fit right in on teams, but also can guard some of the best players most likely. I would give him a great chance to be in the league 10+ years. He’s my 27th offensive player, and my 19th defensive.
20. Matteo Spagnolo 6’4 G Italy, 4
A confident playmaker who can shoot from anywhere and make any pass. He might be too small or not quick enough once he gets to the NBA but I love his game. He may burn out here and go back and win some euro titles. I think he could be young Pablo Prigioni with more athleticism.
21. Jaylin Williams 6’10 C Arkansas, 3
Surprisingly pass first big with some really great defense. He brought a ton of energy to this fun team and I think could fit into an offensive team who needs a middle of the floor defensive anchor. He took over 50 charges last year. His passing will work great at the top of the key with cutters and shooters coming off screens. He doesn’t have much offense of his own, but in the right system he won’t need it. He’s my 40th offensive player and my 10th defensive player.
22. David Roddy 6’6 F Colorado St, 3
I want to put his potential higher but because of his size, he is around 240 pounds and will be slower than a lot of guys, I can’t. But I LOVE his game. Good shooter, passer, creator, defender, and just all around player. But can’t help watching him see more of the best player in a pick up game than an NBA one. He’s someone I hope finds the right spot. Could also be a small ball 5 in the right place. He’s my 16th offensive player and 27th defensive.
23. Ismael Kamagate 6’11 C France, 4
The most raw player in this draft so far. He’s got some decent passing, PnR moves, and can rim protect but nothing spectacular yet. His defense is the thing that could get him on the floor first. I could see him being a Clint Capela or just out of the league. Biggest bust potential here. But drafting this late that’s always a risk. He’s my 35th offensive player, and 21st defensive.
24. Malaki Branham 6’5 G Ohio St, 4
This could be the guy I’m most wrong about. His physical limitations make me wonder if he will make it, but he reminds me of DeRozen lite, and could land in the right situation to really score. His offense is worth taking and his defense needs a lot of help. Could be the steal of the draft. He’s my 8th offensive player and my 35th defensive.
25. Nikola Jovic 6’10 F Serbia, 4
He may have as similar a name you can have to a current MVP of the NBA but he plays much more like Danilo Gallinari, and will need to keep developing to make an impact. But his shot, and offense overall is good enough he could be getting some real minutes in the next few years. 17th in offense and 37th in defense.
26. TyTy Washington 6’4 G Kentucky, 4
Really superb offense all around except for when it comes to getting his own shot. He will need to be surrounded by playmakers. His defense isn’t great but it shouldn’t keep him off the floor. I think if he lands with some good shooters around him he will thrive. He’s my 9th offensive player and my 32nd defensive.
27. AJ Griffin 6’6 G/F Duke, 3
I totally get why he is probably a top 10 pick. His shooting is great, he is very smart off the ball, and has a lot of potential. But he has a deep injury history and I think some limitations on offense and defense. He’s kind of already got old man game at such a young age. I think he will be a veteran and play a long time but not be worth a top pick of impact. But his shooting and offense IQ alone is great. He’s my 10th offensive player and 34th defensive.
28. Bryce McGowens 6’6 G Nebraska, 4
Here’s the most all offense in the draft. Like a bigger Cam Thomas. Could contribute right away to a team not worried about him guarding anyone. Maybe the best offensive creator in the draft, but without much else to counteract it when he’s not hitting. Some playoff team should take him. Mavericks looking at you. He’s my 4th offensive player and my 41st defensive player.
29. Dalen Terry 6’7 G Arizona, 3
This might be the Delon Wright of the draft. Super huge point guard who can play very fast and guard anyone from a 1 to a 3. He’s got great instincts and if he begins to shoot better and finish at the bucket in the half court he could be really special. I’m hedging because it’s so rare this late in the draft. He’s my 28th offensive player and 23rd defensive player.
30. Kofi Cockburn 7’ C Illinois, 3
I see him as Deandre Ayton lite. I don’t think he becomes a super important player but could have moments in certain matchups or getting put backs when needed. I really like his game but there is a bigger chance than most he is just out of the league if he isn’t scoring and isn’t protecting the rim well enough. His college game won’t be what he’s doing in the pros as much. He’s the physically biggest player in the draft and I’ll give him a shot. He’s my 36th offensive player and my 20th defensive.
31. Christian Koloko 7’1 C Arizona, 4
I mentioned once already someone could be the next Capela, but here he actually is. Just all energy and defense with some dunking and rebounding. I could see this guy averaging a double double in the right situation. And the great thing is he could anchor a defense. He’s only this low because of how limited he is on offense and it will take him playing on a team with 4 better offensive players than him to get it going. I think the Warriors could snatch him up and have a fantastic Looney replacement in a year or two. He’s my 44th offensive player and 6th defensive.
32. Kennedy Chandler 6’1 G Tennessee (small but heat check guy)
33. Walker Kessler 7’1 C Auburn (shot blocking defensive anchor who could have a long career)
34. Ousmane Dieng 6’8 F France (development project who has top 5 in the draft potential)
35. Gabriele Procida 6’7 F Italy (like a Bogdanovic brother with more defensive energy)
36. Andrew Nembhard 6’4 G Gonzaga (probably the Tyus Jones of the draft)
37. Max Christie 6’5 G Michigan St. (works so hard and does enough he should make rosters)
4th and final tier (I still like these guys but I either trust them the least or know they probably won’t make an impact in the league)
38. Trevion Williams 6’10 C Purdue (my personal favorite player in the draft, passing genius)
39. Shaedon Sharpe 6’6 G/F (my biggest ?, wouldn’t take him top 5 pick but I’m not a pro scout)
40. Wendell Moore 6’5 G Duke (solid player with no outstanding skill)
41. Kendall Brown 6’8 F Baylor (development project whose defense & athleticism makes it worth it)
42. Khalifa Diop 7’ C Europe (could be an important backup big)
43. Hugo Besson 6’5 G France (shooter who may not be able to add much else)
44. Jaden Hardy 6’4 G G League (could be Lillard 2.0 or could be out of the league)
45. Jean Montero 6’2 G G League (very small but a lightning rod of offense)
46. Leonard Miller 6’10 G Canada (poor man’s Magic Johnson)
47. Patrick Baldwin Jr. 6’9 F Milwaukee (steal of the draft if his college season was a fluke)
guys who I didn’t get to scout but have read good things or watched in college and liked
Justin Lewis F Marquette, JD Davidson G Alabama, Jake LaRavia F Wake Forest, Yannick Nzosa C Spain, Keon Ellis F Alabama, Josh Minott F Memphis, Alondes Williams G Wake Forest, Peyton Watson F UCLA, Ryan Rollins G Toledo, Orlando Robinson C Fresno State, Caleb Houstan F Michigan, Ron Harper Jr. G Rutgers, Jordan Hall F St. Joes, Dominick Barlow F G League, Jabari Walker F Colorado, Julian Champagnie F St, Johns, Johnny Juzang G UCLA, Isaiah Mobley F USC, John Butler C Florida St.
FIRST ROUND MOCK DRAFT
Orlando Magic - Jabari Smith
Oklahoma City Thunder - Chet Holmgren
Houston Rockets - Paolo Banchero
Sacramento Kings - (should be traded so this is a wild card guess) Shaedon Sharpe to another team
Detroit Pistons - Jaden Ivey
Indiana Pacers - Keegan Murray
Portland Trail Blazers - (this is also rumored to be traded) Dyson Daniels to another team (Wizards?)
New Orleans Pelicans - AJ Griffin
San Antonio Spurs - Bennedict Mathurin
Washington Wizards - (if they still have this pick) Jalen Duren
New York Knicks - Johnny Davis
Oklahoma City Thunder - Ousmane Dieng
Charlotte Hornets - Mark Williams
Cleveland Cavaliers - Malaki Branham
Charlotte Hornets - Ochai Agbaji
Atlanta Hawks - Tari Eason
Houston Rockets - Jeremy Sochan
Chicago Bulls - EJ Liddell
Minnesota Timberwolves - TyTy Washington
San Antonio Spurs - Nikola Jovic
Denver Nuggets - Jalen Williams
Memphis Grizzlies - MarJon Beauchamp
Philadelphia 76ers - Jaden Hardy
Milwaukee Bucks - Walker Kessler
San Antonio Spurs - Christian Braun
Dallas Mavericks - Bryce McGowens
Miami Heat - Kennedy Chandler
Golden State Warriors - Christian Koloko
Memphis Grizzlies - Dalen Terry
Oklahoma City Thunder - Trevor Keels
I think this is a very deep draft as you can tell by my tiers. The draft is June 23rd and I’m ready to see all the trades and who will be taken where. Please share any thoughts you have here. I am ready to see where I was wrong a year from now. I might’ve fallen in love with too many guys this year and I’m excited to see how everyone does at this time next year. Go Grizz.