BOB’S BIG BOARD: 2024 NBA DRAFT
Here begins my 9th edition of BOB’S BIG BOARD. They’ve been on this site, facebook notes, google docs, and microsoft word. Only the 4th one I feel like I’ve figured out a formula to gauge who will be successful in the NBA based on what I like in NBA prospects. It’s not complicated but I won’t bore you with what I do.
This draft is known to be a lesser draft than previous years and that is true. For reference, my 2022 draft I had 12 players rated higher than the best in this one. And I had 13 last year. So while it is down at the top, I think it’s as deep as 2022. There will be more regular or fringe guys this year, but less good players. But! Someone will emerge as an all star. History suggests at least 3 of these guys after 5+ years will make an all star game. Even the terrible 2000 & 2013 drafts had them. They just may not be in the top 5 guys taken. 2021 and 2022 already have one all star each. We expect Wemby to make 2023 one. Who will it be in 2024? I’ll try to tell you.
NOW the lists. First list is my overall board. I mix my personal feelings with their potential. Tiers are 1-8 Best guys in the draft potential. 9-34 could be solid rotation guys, give or take a little better or worse. 35-39 end of rotation or never see them. Then 40. Also at the end I put their average consensus ranking between ESPN & The Athletic to compare with what I think.
Stephon Castle 6’6 G UConn
He got to do this on the biggest stage on the best team and I didn’t have this high until I saw more tape of what he can do and did outside of the tournament. He is a great connector. Made everyone better around him. Plays great all around defense and is arguably the 2nd best defender in the draft. At times reminded me a poor man’s SGA. While I don’t have him being that good, I could see him reaching to be the best player on a bad team, or a 3rd best on a good one. Give me this guy and I think you’ll get the best overall guy in this draft. Consensus 4th
Alex Sarr 7’ C France
He is number 1 on my highest potential board, but his question marks are big enough and his floor is lower than I would like with all his uncertainties. What I like about him is he should within his first few years be an All defense level player. Could quickly be an impact rim protector and roaming guy. He has Jaren Jackson Jr. potential. Great athlete, wants to shoot but isn’t good at it yet. Needs a lot of development, but should be a double double machine along with blocks. If he has the dedication to it I would expect him to be the first all star from this draft. But, he has too much to work on for me to assume he will ever get to his best. I would still bet on him if I’m picking high in this draft, but I would be nervous. Consensus 1st
Devin Carter 6’3 G Providence
He’s high but if he reaches his offensive potential he will get to the best in the class level. He’s got the best two way guard potential in this draft. Better at defense than offense. But I think he’s Jose Alvarado at worst. Derrick White at best. So if a team needs a defensive bench guard right away I would take him. Could easily be the Marcus Smart on a Finals team in a few years. Consensus 10th
Bub Carrington 6’5 G Pittsburgh
Truly incredible shot making by this guy. He goes by “Bub” which is a huge checkmark for success, he has Harden level flourishes on his step backs and jump shots. He doesn’t drive near as well as he does though. If he figures out how to successfully get to the rim this guy would be my #1 in this class. I expect him to be in the ROY discussion in 9 months. Love his game. Consensus 13th
Reed Sheppard 6’3 G Kentucky
Potential is lower since he’s not really a self creator like his teammate Dillingham was, but is an incredible shooter, good passer, and solid on defense in help. He will get picked on otherwise, but he should be able to hold his own better than Dillingham. The reason he is 5 is because I think he won’t be able to separate when it matters the way others will. I almost put him 3rd because I could totally see him being a Haliburton or Austin Reeves type, but he’s smaller than those guys. His path is harder with his size. But he should be at least a Pritchard with a better shot at worst. Not joking when I say he projects to be the best shooter I’ve seen in any draft I’ve scouted. Consensus 3rd
Johnny Furphy 6’9 F Kansas
Was my highest rated guy in this draft for awhile. He just doesn’t handle the ball enough to justify having him at the top. But I consider him a lock to be an important piece on a playoff team in the future. He’s very smart, good shooter, great off the ball setting up his shot, cutting, finding the space to get open or make the right play. He looks like he would fit in on the Heat or Nuggets right now. I’m betting on Furphy! If he goes to the Grizz at 9, Thunder at 12, Kings at 13, Heat at 15, Sixers at 16, or Lakers at 17 look out. I am higher on him than anyone I’ve seen unless your last name is “Furphy” so he’s probably the guy I’m sticking my neck out most for. But I love his game. He’s super young and I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t even really play much depending on where he goes. But if he’s not a top 5-10 guy in this class by 2030 I’ll be surprised. Consensus 23rd
Rob Dillingham 6’2 G Kentucky
He’s near the top on my highest potential board, because they guy can score so easily. His deficiencies are obvious. He’s too short, how many 6’2 and under guards actually make a big impact on teams? His defense is bad partly because of this and partly because he doesn’t put in enough effort on that end when he was in college. He will be picked on and will need to be so hot shooting to justify his size. But he is a heat check master and at worst should be scoring 15 ppg + off the bench for someone in the future. I would bet on his skillset and understand I would need a large team around him. But he should score. Bet on a 6th man of the year award at some point down the road. Consensus 11th
Ron Holland 6’7 F G League
He is more of a big swing than others which is why he is lower here. He’s an incredible scorer with good defense and projects to be at his best a Mikel Bridges type, but could also just a rotational defensive wing if his shot never develops. I would bet on him, and might take him top 3 if I had more intel on him. He had a tough year with the Ignite, but was thought to be the #1 in the class in the past for a reason. Consensus 12th
Pacome Dadiet 6’8 F France
This is the french prospect you aren’t hearing as much about. But I love him, If you gave me a choice between him and Risacher I would take this guy 9/10 times. He has a great shot, super athletic, high motor, finds space on offense and moves well, plays fast and aggressive in transition, and tries super hard all the time. He reminds me of a tall Maxey just not quite as fast. I’ll be cheering for this guy. He’s 18 and i’ll bet on his development. Another guy I don’t expect much from for a few years but will be rooting for and watching. Consensus 32nd
Nikola Topic 6’6 PG Serbia
Shouldn’t he be higher with his potential being better than Sheppard? Of course. But he partially tore his ACL, is a worse shooter, and one of the worst defenders in the draft. I think he’s a Rubio type who in the right situation will make everyone better and create an offense that leads to winning, but in the wrong one could just be a bummer and miss out on assists passing to below average shooters and head back to europe where his passing and IQ would dominate. His injury history is going to scare off teams and he may drop, but before his injury I could argue him for 2nd best in the draft. Consensus 11th
Isaiah Crawford 6’5 G/F Louisiana Tech
This guy shocked me how much I loved him. Has a Vince Williams to his game but with a better shot and more offensive playmaking. Defense is right there if not just a hair worse, but he tore both ACL’s during his time, and is undersized. I’ll take him all day. Shot 40% from 3, put up some great block and steal numbers, passes like a true PG, can hit turn around fadeaways at an okay clip. He’s my biggest swing. Probably will be taken in the 2nd round, if not a undrafted FA, and will be making plays next season. Consensus 60th
Kevin McCullar 6’7 F Kansas
He’s got a lower ceiling than Furphy with his injury history and age. But I expect him to fit in that Jaime Jaquez style of last years draft where he is underrated and then quickly becomes a top 7 guy on a decent team. Getting hurt at the end of the season I’m sure scares teams off, but I would guarantee a solid role player here, 3 & D with a low ceiling but knows how to play winning basketball. Probably gets picked in the twenties or early 2nd round and plays well early. Consensus 46th
Kyshawn George 6’8 G/F Miami
I love his game. He’s a super tall eventual PG, who is like if Giddey could shoot. Top 5 three point shooter in the draft and plays like Kyle Anderson with more speed. Great help defender and smart. From Switzerland and is a developing project who could be incredible in one of his timelines. Just not sure it would be this one. Likely a bench role guy for a long time Batum style. But he’s got best in the class ceiling. Consensus 27th
Tristan Da Silva 6’9 F Colorado
A german and heavy usage player in college that should mostly be a corner 3, pick and pop guy on a good team in the NBA. Scored 16 PPG and had the ball a lot. Was asked to create constantly and won’t be going forward. But him having that experience is great. He’s a good shooter, okay defender, and should be a Santi Aldama type but with a higher ceiling. Consensus 17th
Ryan Dunn 6’8 F Virginia
I only have him this low because he could be Tony Snell, but his defense is the best I’ve seen in this draft by far. From what I’ve seen the reason Virginia was as good as they even were was in large part because of his defense. He can’t score yet, but I would bet on a Herb Jones trajectory for him and I think the Knicks and Thibs would look to take him with one of their picks in the 20’s. Love this guy. Will be made fun of for his shot at some point probably, but I will be pumped about him making wings lives miserable for years. What if Lu Dort took 5 less shots per game and was 3 inches taller? Consensus 28th
Adem Bona 6’10 C UCLA
rim running center that can guard multiple positions, super athlete, good defense, would thrive with a PG who can run an offense. Shouldn’t have the ball much in his hands and isn’t a playmaker. That’s the only reason he’s this low for me. A real Lively type impact but shorter if he gets to the right team. Love this guy. Ceiling is low but floor is high to me. high energy and aggression I’m excited about. Consensus 36th
Yves Missi 7’ C Baylor
Maybe the safest pick in this draft. A toss up with Bona for me but Bona plays meaner so I like him more. Missi is a true center, loves to screen and catch lobs, rebound, protect the rim, and be physical. I would love to have this guy on an already established team with a ball handler playmaker. Just a low ceiling keeps him from being higher here. Consensus 21st
Donovan Clingan 7’2 C UConn
Maybe my hottest take having him this low. But I don’t think he be scoring much, he’s a good passer, and smart player. But he isn’t a good enough defender for it to really make a huge difference unless he develops some Gobert trajectory. He’s solid. I think he could be like a Walker Kessler type impact where he has a great start his rookie year then slows down and the league figures him out and he just becomes a rotation guy. mid to low level Starting Center at best. Which is a safe good pick. But he seems like a type to get hurt a lot. People get excited when they see a potential Gobert who can score, but I see at best a Hartenstein. Consensus 4th
Zach Edey 7’4 C Purdue
You get me on the right day and I like him more than Clingan. He moves better, had such high usage on offense he will be trusted when he gets his 5-10 touches a game, and is a better screener. Has real poor man Steven Adams but with a soft offensive touch potential. Clingan has higher ceiling but I’ll take Edey’s floor. It’s a toss up for me and it is not for anyone else I’ve seen. I see a taller Zubac in Edey’s future. Either way, there are about 5-6 NBA starter level centers in this draft I think. Consensus 16th
Terrence Shannon 6’6 SG Illinois
He had one of the highest usage %’s being the focal point of a very good Illini team. But my excitement about him is actually on defense where when he was fully engaged and not totally beat from carrying that team at times scoring, he was a really good defender. He reminds me of a Nikeil Alexander Walker type but with more experience so he should have a role pretty fast. He is older so he won’t go this high but I like him doing better than a few of the younger higher upside guys. Consensus 33rd
Ja’Kobe Walter 6’5 G Baylor
I was lower on him at first when I started, then had him top 10, but the more I watched the more I saw things that made me think he will be in the league a long time but never become more than Tim Hardaway Jr. He will shoot the lights out at times, and has limitation in other areas, but his defense is passable enough and I think his skills translate to being good for a long time. He’s not near my favorite in the draft but I would be surprised if he can’t find a place to be in rotation. Unless his shot just disappears. Since someone from this draft will be an all star in a few years Walter would be high on my betting for that. If he turned into Malik Monk with more opportunity I wouldn’t be shocked. Consensus 18th
DaRon Holmes 6’10 PF/C Dayton
I loved this guy but I am aware I just always find someone at Dayton to love. He had over 30% usage for them, which means that’s how many times the possession ended with him. He reminds me of an offensive polished Nic Claxton. Maybe not quite as good defensively. He’s tall but not quite a center, and he’s not quite fast and athletic enough to be a full 4, so I think he will end up being a small 5. Very dependent on where he goes like most of these guys. He can score, he plays solid defense, and is smart. I think he’s gonna be a 10+ year player. Consensus 31st
Kyle Filipowski 7’ C Duke
An athletic, streaky shooting stretch 5 who will make some think he can be Chet, but he’s much closer to a Frank Kaminsky. I would be surprised if he makes a big impact, but he will absolutely be in 7-8 man rotations for most of his career with his skillset. Consensus 20th
Jared McCain 6’3 G Duke
Should be a good shooter, but he’s one of the least athletic players in the class and even though he’s smart, can score, and is a decent defender, I cannot imagine his size and limitations won’t keep him from being a top guy in the class. But if he knocks down 3’s at 40% none of that will matter. Seth Curry like. Consensus 15th
Matas Buzelis 6’10 F G League
A real jack of all trades type guy. Needs to bulk up, but has the confidence and ability to be one of the best in the draft. I just don’t buy it totally. Seems more like a Maxi Kleber to me. Which is fine, but not top 5 pick level. Ready to be wrong since his potential is like a taller Franz Wagner. Consensus 9th
Dalton Knecht 6’6 G Tennessee
His shooting and maturity is tempting but I don’t fully trust it unless he shoots at a very high level. His defense is bad, he doesn’t do much else besides shoot. He had to create a lot for a good Tennessee team but I don’t see him getting past or separating from anyone at the next level without good screens or mistakes on rotations. He should be a Joe Harris type. I imagine if he lands in the right situation he could be very important in a playoff series in a couple years but won’t be too impactful otherwide without turning into Korver. Consensus 8th
Isaiah Collier 6’3 PG USC
He would be a top 5 pick 10 years ago probably. He’s got that Westbrook or Scoot style of game but he’s shorter and not as athletically gifted. Doesn’t shoot well, and has maybe the worst defense in the draft. Could totally turn into a Jaden Hardy heat check give a team 8 good minutes type. But I think he will struggle to adapt. Love his potential as an offensive powerhouse. Could be wrong but I’ll take him lower in the first. Consensus 21st
Melvin Ajinca 6’7 F France
Good shooter, smart and finds open space. There’s not a ton on him out there but from what I’ve seen he hustles and is pretty young. Reminded me of Jae Crowder with a better shot. Consensus 44th
Tyler Kolek 6’2 PG Marquette
Love his competitiveness, how good of a shooter he became, his playmaking for others, but his limted upside makes it hard to take him. He feels like he will be around for a long time but there’s only so many Pritchard, McConnell spots to go around. He might just be too small if his shot isn’t falling and that would worry me but his fight gives him a decent first round grade in this draft. Consensus 29th
Zaccharie Risacher 6’9 F France
He is one of my more uncertain prospects. He reminds me of Michael Porter Jr and Trevor Ariza. But if he continues his shooting trajectory. I just don’t buy it. Gotta go with the potential, but I’m hedging on him. He plays smaller than his size and can’t imagine him playing the 4 successfully. Will need to be a large 3. He’s a potential #1 pick though so go with the professionals and I’ll be over here ready to look stupid. Consensus 3rd
Cody Williams 6’7 F Colorado
Brother of Jalen Williams is not near the prospect he was, but has 3 & D role player wing written all over him. He has few flaws but also nothing really stands out. He disappeared a lot on a team with players who all did more. At least more impactful game to game. But his skills, which truly he is solid at about everything, shows he could hang around this league a long time. I think he’s more of a Ziaire Williams than a Jalen Williams. Consensus 9th
Jaylon Tyson 6’7 SG/SF Cal
Good shooter, but streaky and overall so much emphasis on the offensive side his defense might keep him off the floor. Does have one of the best chances to be a heat check off the bench guy in the draft with his height and skill. Consensus 24th
Justin Edwards 6’7 F Kentucky
This is a risky pick for me, but this low who cares? He’s got a lot of upside, didn’t get to show much of it at Kentucky and may just disappear. But he has all the tools to be a rotational wing. Good defender and an alright shot. I would take a bet on him late in the first round. Consensus 48th
Bobi Klintman 6’10 PF Sweden
Good stretch 4, smart off ball offensive player. Defense is okay but needs to get better to stick around. Plays a little too soft for my liking. Too big to get pushed around. Might be a tall wing. His lack of physicality makes me worry he just doesn’t get in games. Consensus 34th
Tyler Smith 6’10 PF G League
He’s a stretch 4 with very little anything else besides the potential to be a corner three guy. His defense was bad, he didn’t do much else on offense, looked like a bad Jabari Smith Jr. I don’t believe in this guy but I’m all for the swing at the end of the first round if you like him. His height and shooting potential will cause him to go earlier I imagine. Consensus 29th
Tidjane Salaun 6’9 F France
One of Wemby’s good friends underwhelmed me quite a bit. One of the few players in this draft that reminds me of worse Michael Porter Jr. Who is apparently French based on what I think of all these prospects. But with zero defense, and is a question mark on everything to me. He has high upside so he should go top 15 if not 10, but he’s lowest floor to my eyes. But! I’ll give him credit, if he lands in the right spot he has top 10 potential of the draft. Consensus 10th
Kel’el Ware 7’ C Indiana
Such Christian Wood vibes to me. Low energy, not physical, decent shot and average to below average defense. He will need to significantly up his game to make an impact. But a 7’ stretch shooter with decent rebounding and potential doesn’t come along too often so I get reaching for him. Just not someone I’m into. Best case is a Jaxson Hayes type. Consensus 25th
Ulrich Chomche 6’11 C Africa
This is the lowest guy on this list I would draft if I had mostly a full roster and wanted to stash a guy to develop as my starting center by 2027 or something. He is the youngest guy in the draft, won’t be 19 until December, has so much raw potential. May never get there since teams get impatient but he can shoot a little already, great at cutting, makes good passes, can’t score on his own yet, but I truly would keep an eye on him. Might just be all talent and nowhere to put it mentally, but I’m pumped if he gets a shot. Consensus 42nd
Baylor Scheierman 6’7 SF Creighton
Has a chance because of his offensive skillset but I don’t buy him as a real guy. Defense is bad, won’t be able to do much else besides catch and shoot. But I was wrong about Podz last year so he could prove me wrong as well. Consensus 29th
Bronny James 6’2 G USC
Defense first, too short to be anything but a point guard, who has moments of hot shooting who could become a Patty Mills type if everything went well. He should’ve stayed in school but his dad wants to play with him. He could be Austin Rivers level of a career best case to me. Most likely just a defensive guard who if he gets to play with his dad will make sure he gets a chance to show what he can do and I’m rooting for him but it’s stupid he might go round 1. Consensus 63rd
Now how I think the draft will go.
Atlanta Hawks - Donovan Clingan C - I think they just take the guy they’ve seen perform at a high level. Risacher is raw, Sarr came off the bench, Clingan looked like a force at times in the tourney. They will trade Capela and start him with either Trae or Murray next year after they trade one.
Washington Wizards - Alex Sarr C - they are the worst situation in the league in my opinion roster wise, and Sarr needs a couple years so now he can start and be bad and make mistakes and no one will care. Avdija is going to be good, and I want to see how a PG, Bilal Coulibaly, Kispert, Avdija, Sarr look together.
Houston Rockets - Reed Sheppard PG- A likely trade here, but if they keep it I think they take Reed Sheppard as a VanVleet eventual replacement. This kid and Steven Adams are going to love each other.
San Antonio Spurs- Zaccharie Risacher SF - I think they are Wemby’s universe and getting a top french prospect to pair with him makes sense.
Detroit Pistons - Matas Buzelis F - There’s a connection with his agent and their team and if he had a guaranteed three point shot he might be the first pick based on what professional scouts think.
Charlotte Hornets - Stephon Castle G - He wants to be a PG, but they have LaMelo and I think if you play LaMelo, Brandon Miller, Castle, Mark Williams, plus a big wing that’s going to be a fun team.
Portland Trail Blazers - Dalton Knecht SG- shooter who could help stretch the floor for Scoot and Shaedon Sharpe. Also have read they want to trade up to 1 for Clingan, so look for maybe a big trade here but if not here’s a good guess.
San Antonio Spurs - Tidjune Salaun F - Another french prospect, who is actually very good friends with Wemby and they played together before. Will they actually take two large french wings who can play 3 or 4? Probably not, but I’m predicting it.
Memphis Grizzlies - Ron Holland SF - They need a wing, they also need a big but I don’t think they’d reach. Their GM loves trading in the draft so don’t be surprised if they move back so they can take a big but if they don’t they will take Holland, Edey, or Filipowski.
Utah Jazz - Rob Dillingham G - Can’t imagine Ainge passing up this scoring talent. But look for another trade here. They want to compete next year and trading this pick & John Collins is a way to do that.
Chicago Bulls - Cody Williams SF - guy just seems like a Bull and this is right where he’s been consensus to go.
OKC Thunder - Zach Edey C - Give Sam Presti some bigs and see what happens. Imagine stretching the floor with Chet and having Edey screening and sucking up rebounds. Obviously a trade is likely here though.
Sacramento Kings - Kyle Filipowski C - Stretch 5 backing up Sabonis and maybe could play together if they want to experiment.
Portland Trail Blazers - Tristan Da Silva F - Can play 3 or 4 and shoots, scores easily, plays solid D, would be pumped about this pick for them.
Miami Heat - Devin Carter G - The most Heat player of the draft would be perfect to go back and play where his dad did.
Philadelphia Sixers - Bub Carrington G - Man, if they luck into this guy they will have a lethal combo of him and Maxey shot making all over the place.
Los Angeles Lakers - Jared McCain G - LeBron loves Duke and this kid can shoot.
Orlando Magic - Ja’Kobe Walter SG- They need shooting and this guy provides that.
Toronto Raptors - Nikola Topic PG - This is my wildest prediction is that a guy who was considered 2nd best in the draft recently falls to the Raptors at 19. He would be awesome there.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Isaiah Collier PG- Garland replacement, driving aggressive offense only player that will at worst be a bench unit scorer.
New Orleans Pelicans- Yves Missi C - Jonas replacement that will be so good next to Zion and catch all the lobs CJ can throw.
Phoenix Suns - Kel’el Ware C - Soft player who is likely to replace Nurkic at some point.
Milwaukee Bucks - Kyshawn George G/F - Great shooter with potential to be a SloMo style connector who can play PG at 6’8.
New York Knicks - Ryan Dunn SF - Back up for the eventual OG injury who has the best defense in the draft and never needs to shoot. Perfect for a Brunson team.
New York Knicks - Tyler Smith PF- Shooting big man who can stretch the floor and looks like Jabari Smith with no defense.
Washington Wizards - Tyler Kolek G - Could be their PG, brings experience and confidence and can take Tyus Jones place.
Minnesota Timberwolves - Terrence Shannon Jr. G/F - Scoring big guard who can make an impact come playoff time and just be NAW insurance.
Denver Nuggets - Johnny Furphy F - They took Braun and now Furphy, who will be cutting off ball, making threes, and loving life getting to play with Jokic. Guarantee he would be in their rotation by playoff time.
Utah Jazz - Baylor Scheierman G/F - You think Ainge can leave this guy on the board? large confident scoring white guy? Come on.. also feels like this pick gets traded.
Boston Celtics - DaRon Holmes PF/C - Celtics get a scoring, rebounding, smart Horford insurance guy who has lots of experience and goes from being the most important guy on a good team for two seasons to the 10th man or lower. Great pick.
Second round highlights when taken
Pacome Dadiet, Kevin McCullar Jr, Jamal Shead, Melvin Ajinca, Oso Ighodaro, Isaiah Crawford, N’Faly Dante, Riley Minix
Go Grizz